Matt Ludtke/Associated Press
Green Bay owns five straight wins over the Rams, with five straight covers. However, the last meeting between these teams came back in 2015, and the Rams have since passed the Packers in the NFC hierarchy. Los Angeles will play as a big favorite over Green Bay on Sunday at the Coliseum.
NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 39.4-10.8 Rams (NFL picks on every game)
Why the Packers can cover the spread
Green Bay bounced back from a loss at Detroit three weeks ago to outlast San Francisco two weeks ago 33-30. The Packers had last week off.
Green Bay spotted the 49ers the first seven points of the game two weeks ago, then scored the next 17. The Packers later were down 30-23 early in the fourth quarter but pulled even on an Aaron Rodgers touchdown connection with Devante Adams with just under two minutes to go. The Pack then won it with an interception, an 81-yard drive with no timeouts and a short Mason Crosby field goal at the buzzer.
On the night, Green Bay produced 521 yards of offense, as Rodgers threw for 425 and two touchdowns, without a pick. The Packers also out-first downed San Francisco 26-18 and won the turnover battle 3-0, resulting in a plus-9 point differential.
Green Bay has now out-gained its last three opponents by an average of 218 yards.
Why the Rams can cover the spread
Los Angeles remained the last undefeated team in the league this season with a 39-10 rout of that same San Francisco outfit last week. The Rams only led 3-0 after one quarter but pressed that advantage to 22-7 at the half, then scored the first 10 points out of the locker room, on their way to the easy victory and cover as eight-point divisional road favorites.
Los Angeles only produced 331 yards of total offense in the game but held the 49ers to just 228. The Rams also won the turnover battle 4-0 and blocked a punt, all of which created a plus-26 point differential.
Los Angeles has now out-gained six of its seven opponents this season and out-rushed six of seven foes.
Smart betting pick
The Packers are 0-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season, and nearly non-competitive in both those games. And last time out the Green Bay defense gave up 174 yards on the ground and made some guy named CJ Beathard look like Joe Montana. Meanwhile, the Rams are probably the most complete team in the league. Smart money here gives the points with Los Angeles.
NFL betting trends
The Packers are 4-13 SU in their last 17 games on the road vs the Rams.
The Rams are 3-0 ATS in their last three games as a double-digit favorite.
The Packers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.